Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
